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Edward Roskill's avatar

What about using the seized Russian foreign currency reserves for Ukraine reconstruction costs?

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James1942's avatar

This is definitely the best analysis I've seen - so glad I subscribed. (Disclaimer - I did a War Studies BA in the 1990s under Sir Lawrence Freedman).

The key point that many other people seem to miss is that events on the physical battlefield are important, but not necessarily decisive. The initial Russian military failure was absolutely critical in avoiding the kind of short, fait d'accompli for which the Russian Armed Forces and economy are optimized, and on which they're effectively dependent. Since that initial failure, I would argue that events beyond that physical battlefield have assumed greater importance: widespread political support, Chinese caution, economic and financial factors, and Ukrainian success in the infowar/global PR battle have greater significance, precisely because these factors are the opposite of those which Russia needs to work in its favour.

Even though the sanctions aren't watertight, they're causing sufficient damage to the Russian economy that it's status as a 'great power' has been completely undermined in the eyes of the world, and particularly China. While a China-Russia axis remains possible, I would assume that Chinese caution, pragmatism and long-term thinking make it significantly less likely given the dual irresponsibility and failure of the Putin regime to achieve its objectives. In thinking about post-war costs, would it be in Chinese interests to participate in a globally-funded reconstruction programme for Ukraine? This would be a clear benefit to China in improving its relations with the West, and would in essence be storing up both a 'favour' and a financial precedent for when Chinese sovereign debt becomes a regime-threatening issue. This would be even more the case if China has either participated in, or even led, international efforts to end the war or even have the Putin regime replaced (latter less likely but not impossible, depending on Putin's escalatory actions). In summary, will China's self-interest become a significant determining factor in both the current war and what comes after it?

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