The Badenoch Conundrum

Here are three things that are all true:

• Kemi Badenoch’s personal ratings have improved significantly since last year. On Opinium’s job approval question she’s gone from -27% in May 2025 to -8% this month. Ipsos had her favourability below Keir Starmer and Nigel Farage in June 2025, but she’s now well ahead of both. As recently as last August, Farage beat her on a YouGov forced choice question about who would be the best prime minister, now she’s leading him by 38% to 17%.

• Reform has become less popular since last summer. Their polling average peaked at 31% in August 2025 and is now 26%. Farage’s approval ratings are also falling. Opinium had him at -5% in September 2025 and he’s now at -23%.

• The Conservatives’ polling has barely moved at all. In July 2025 they averaged 18% and now it’s 19%. They remain level with Labour and some distance behind Reform. These numbers were validated in the local elections when they lost more than 40% of their councillors and all their large county councils.

If, last year, you had told people that Badenoch would get significantly more popular, while Reform slipped back, they would reasonably have assumed the Tories would be doing better. But they aren’t.

Understanding why is critical to thinking through how British politics will play out over the next few years. If Badenoch’s improving ratings are a leading indicator for a Conservative resurgence then that puts Reform in serious jeopardy, and could lead to a revival in traditional two-party politics (at least temporarily).

The media interest that sustains Farage is dependent on him being the main challenger on the right. It also drives pro-Reform tactical voting by Conservatives, as we saw in Makerfield and in places like Sunderland during the local elections.

But if it’s not a leading indicator then that’s bad news for the Tories. Partly as a result of her improved ratings Badenoch is under no threat as leader, and looks likely to take the Conservatives into the next election despite their dire polling. If she’s not capable of turning it around then the party could find itself on the verge of extinction.

So what’s going on?