Thanks, as ever, for so many excellent questions. My answers are in today’s post, Dad’s will be following in a few days. I’ve focused on the most popular questions and those asked, in different forms, by lots of people.
Topics covered include:
Will/should Burnham call an early election?
Have we passed peak Reform?
Can Restore become an electorally viable party?
Was Rishi Sunak the last Tory prime minister?
Why isn’t Burnham talking about the climate crisis?
If Remain had won how different would British politics be?
What would happen if we introduced compulsory voting?
What’s going on with the civil service?
When will we get a coherent policy on universities?
What fiscal options are open to the new Chancellor for the budget?
Is the NEET problem really about the labour market or education?
Is reindustrialisation the wrong objective for Britain?
What’s going to happen in the US midterms?
Could Project 2025 happen here?
Is socialism finally breaking through in America?
Can Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the French presidential election?
Andrew: Do you think Burnham will go for an early election given the poor performance of Reform and the Tories currently?
I don’t think there will be an election this year, nor do I think Burnham’s team have a definite plan for one in 2027. I suspect there is a concerted effort not to talk about it internally. The moment discussions go beyond a few people something inevitably leaks and there would be a press frenzy.
But the prospect will certainly be on peoples’ minds given the weakness of the opposition parties – Reform is struggling with multiple scandals and the Tories are clearly nowhere near ready for an election.
An even bigger reason to go early is the fiscal challenge facing the government in the next few years. The spending review will focus minds on the latter point, as ministers will have to set out spending cuts for election year, or announce further chunky tax rises that would go beyond hitting the rich. Real wages are also projected to fall over the next few years. So there will be a temptation to go soon in the hope of finishing off Farage and creating the space for better economic conditions by 2032.
Of course the downside is the risk of losing, and the high likelihood of a lower majority even with a win. A loss would have serious consequences for many of the most vulnerable people in society. That’s a high price to pay so if I were Burnham I would want three criteria to be met before agreeing: