Playing for Time

Why Trump's Ukraine proposal is causing headaches for Putin

On 27 April US Secretary of State Marco Rubio observed that the Trump administration would soon decide whether to continue to try to negotiate an end to the Russo-Ukraine War or give up and move on to other matters:

‘We have to make a determination about whether this is an endeavor that we want to continue to be involved in or if it’s time to sort of focus on some other issues that are equally if not more important in some cases.’

He wanted the effort to succeed:

‘There are reasons to be optimistic, but there are reasons to be realistic of course as well. We’re close, but we’re not close enough.’

This followed up a similar warning he had made ten days’ earlier when he warned that a determination would have to be made soon as to whether this was ‘doable’.

That previous announcement had sparked a flurry of activity, including a typical Putin gesture of a unilaterally announced Easter truce, which he dared Ukraine to respect. At most this led to a slight and very temporary reduction in military activity. Of greater significance were conversations between Trump’s preferred envoy (on almost anything) Steve Witkoff and Putin, as well as some meetings in Europe, although a big one expected to involve both Rubio and Zelenskyy was postponed.

The best guide as to where all this effort might be leading was who was annoying Trump most. Once again it was Zelenskyy who got off on the wrong foot as he expressed alarm at an apparent plan to get Ukraine to recognise Russian gains (which he may have over-interpreted). This led Trump to describe the Ukrainian president’s refusal to accept US terms as ‘inflammatory’. His stance would ‘do nothing but prolong the killing fields.’ But then, after Zelenskyy moderated his tone, Trump turned on Putin, following a murderous attack on Kyiv by a Russian missile which killed nine civilians. He posted, more in disappointment than anger,

‘I am not happy with the Russian strikes on KYIV. Not necessary, and very bad timing. Vladimir, STOP!’

Meanwhile Trump’s attitude towards Zelenskyy became more emollient, after an apparently cordial meeting at the Vatican, while both were attending the funeral of Pope Francis. Never one to worry about consistency, Trump spoke warmly about his relationship with Zelenskyy:

‘Look, it was never bad. We had a little dispute, because I disagreed with something he said, and the cameras were rolling and that was OK with me.’

He acknowledged the Ukrainian president’s ‘tough situation … fighting a much bigger force.’ But he found him ‘calmer’ than before, adding ‘I think he wants to make a deal.’ As for Putin:

‘Well, I want him to stop shooting. Sit down and sign the deal. We have the confines of a deal, I believe, and I want him to sign it and be done with it.”

He suggested that Putin had two weeks or less to convince him that he wanted peace. In another post he acknowledged a point that had already occurred to many observers:

‘There was no reason for Putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days. It makes me think that maybe he doesn't want to stop the war, he's just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through 'Banking' or 'Secondary Sanctions?' Too many people are dying!!!’

Faced with this awkward change in Trump’s mood, the Russians have been trying to sound positive and show that they really care. Their problem, as it has been from the start of this process, is that Trump has not gone far enough in his proposals to make it possible for Putin to sign up. A game attempt by CBS’s Margaret Brennan to get Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to be forthcoming, extracted no new insights other than that Russia is ‘ready to reach a deal’ on Ukraine and that Trump is the ‘only leader’ who understands his country’s position. Then he denied that two issues on which Trump said he was pushing Moscow – children abducted from Ukraine and a potential US role in running the nuclear power station in Zaporizhzhia - had been raised.

As I noted in a previous post, Ukraine and Russia have been doing their best to ensure that the other side gets the blame for the failure of the administration’s effort and suffers accordingly. For the moment Putin may be falling behind. This is one reason why he may not want the process to end. If it is abandoned it is not clear what can take its place.

This process is clearly biased against Ukraine, in that Trump refuses to try and reverse Russia’s aggression or even acknowledge its culpability for the war. But that does not mean that it suits Putin. In this post I explore why that might be the case and how the next steps may play out.