Partygate and Ukraine
Has Boris Johnson's domestic trouble made any difference to the UK response in Ukraine? Would deposing him change anything?
The coincidence of an engrossing domestic political scandal with a terrifying international crisis naturally raises questions about the interaction between the two. The Prime Minister and his remaining loyalists dismiss the allegations about lockdown parties as frivolous and distracting when there is an overriding need for everyone to focus sharply on possible Russian aggression against Ukraine. They contrast the vital importance of deterrence and diplomacy with the inherent triviality of stories about parties in the garden and birthday cakes. At the same time, some opponents of Boris Johnson are so suspicious of the way this argument is being deployed that they are led to wonder whether the Ukrainian situation is being hyped to an absurd degree to help him escape from the many scandals swirling around him.
There are therefore three questions to ask about the confluence of these two crises. First, has the domestic crisis shaped the UK response to the international crisis? Second, will this response be much affected if Johnson is forced to resign as Prime Minister? Third, if there is a war might there be a rally round the flag effect that would help Johnson?
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