MAGA Meltdown?

Why the Republicans are in serious trouble

Donald Trump’s second term is going no better than his first. He has failed to end the war in Ukraine, failed to put forward a plan on healthcare, and failed to cut government spending. Inflation is higher, unemployment is up and GDP growth has fallen.

His main achievements have been to give tax breaks to the rich (again), adding to America’s debt problems; set off a wave of brutal raids on migrants across US cities; and create an arbitrary tariff regime leading to endless trade war negotiations while raising prices for consumers. His international escapades – including a belated and shaky Middle East ceasefire – are of little interest to the American public.

Unsurprisingly, given this record, he is unpopular. His approval rating has dropped to -15% - mirroring the fall during his first term. It is negative in 39 states, including all swing states.

Trump’s support has fallen particularly sharply with young people and minorities. Much reporting of last year’s election focused on the “realignment” of these groups away from the Democrats. But they have quickly reverted back. The President’s approval rating on every single issue bar border security is net negative, and is -33% on the critical issue of prices and inflation.

This frustration with cost increases led to a dire set of election results for the Republicans at the start of the month. Voters whose main issue was the economy strongly backed the Democrats – a big switch since last year. They won everywhere – taking back the Virginia governorship with a 15 point win; defeating attempts to unseat liberal supreme court judges in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania by over 20 points; and winning their first non-federal statewide election in Georgia since 2006 by the same margin.

This needn’t be existential for the Republicans. It’s not unusual for parties to do badly after winning a Presidential election and they tend to start distancing themselves from unpopular Presidents, especially second term ones. But with Trump, they’ve gone all in, sacrificing any sense of independence on the MAGA altar. While many have plenty of criticisms of Trump in private they have, to date, seen the threat of retribution from him as more dangerous than unpopularity by association.

At the margins we’re starting to see this shift slightly as the midterms come into view. Four House Republicans signed the petition to release the Epstein files, which forced Trump to admit defeat and agree to their publication. One of the signatories – the formerly uber-MAGA Marjorie Taylor Greene – has had a very public falling out with the President leading to her resigning from Congress. Elsewhere, Republicans in several states are refusing to support efforts to gerrymander seats ahead of the midterms. Indiana is proving particularly resistant, despite a series of escalating threats from the President.

None of this means that Trump’s coalition is about to collapse, or that he won’t be able to do an enormous amount of damage over the coming years. He still has immense loyalty from his base, and people are still scared of him. But a growing numbers of Republicans are realising they’re in serious trouble and frustration is growing. The longer the party is a personality cult, the harder it will be to emerge from his shadow.

In the rest of the post I’ll look at why Trump’s ratings are likely to keep deteriorating; the faultlines this is exposing in his party; what it means for the midterms – including an early look at the key races – and the next Presidential election; and why the GOP is looking increasingly trapped.