Is Ukraine winning the drone race?

Barely six months ago it appeared that Russia was ahead in the drone race. I wrote last September about an elite unit established by the Russian Ministry of Defence, which acquired and developed new drone technologies, tested new tactics, and trained drone operators. They were well funded and professional, and worked systematically against Ukrainian supply lines. They were causing the Ukrainians major problems in holding onto their positions, for example in Pokrovsk. Russian forces prepared their offensives through ‘battlefield air interdiction’ (BAI) bringing together drones, glide bombs, artillery and missiles to target Ukraine’s logistics and drone operators.

It was a concerning time, for up to this point the Ukraine had led the drone race. It still demonstrated enormous innovative capacity, yet this might be undone by Russia’s ability to outproduce Ukraine and its ruthless and methodical tactics.

So far this year Russian forces have not made the advances they need to sustain their claims of inevitable victory. One reason put about by Russian military bloggers is that Ukraine has been allowed to retake the lead in the drone race, limiting the ability of its forces to develop their offensive. The complaints from the Russian side have been backed up by some confident statements from Kyiv about how well their drones are doing.

One unconfirmed report went so far as to suggest that the situation was sufficiently serious for Russian Defence Minister Andrey Belousov to tell President Putin that Ukraine has a ‘significant’ technological advantage in drone warfare on the frontlines, and that this was leading to a ‘critical’ situation for Russian forces. With virtually inaudible drones being used ‘around the clock,’ standard Russian defensive measures were ineffective. Belousov urged that Russia make the development of next generation drones an urgent priority.

Then, on 15 April, reinforcing the view that the Ministry of Defence is genuinely bothered by Ukrainian advances and how much these are being backed up by Western technology, it published the addresses of 11 Ukrainian manufacturers and 10 European companies in Europe that are supporting Ukraine, warning that such joint production ventures were a ‘step towards escalation’ and ‘creeping transformation of these countries into a strategic rear for Ukraine.’ This followed announcements from Germany, on a €4 billion military aid package focusing on air defence and drones, and a joint Ukrainian-Italian drone production project. Reliable rent-a-threat, former president Dmitry Medvedev, warned that this statement should be taken ‘literally’ and the list represents ‘potential targets for the Russian armed forces.’

What is going on here? Is this panic on the Russian side or more a push to get the Kremlin to shake up the Russian drone development and production? Perhaps it is an effort to explain why the Russian offensive has stalled, despite Putin’s promises late last year of irresistible advances.

In this post I’ll consider the evidence that the Ukrainians have regained the lead in the drone race. As I shall note there are a number of distinctive races underway and some of these are tighter than others. To the extent that the Ukrainians do seem to have pulled ahead what does this tell us about how the two sides approach to technological innovation? What lessons are there for other nations as this new form of warfare evolves?