Is Andy Burnham overrated? Why are the Tories so relaxed about their dire election results? Do the BBC give Farage an easy ride?

Answering lots of your questions

Thanks to readers, as always, for so many excellent questions.

Apologies to those of you who didn’t get a response this time, but some of those questions will be covered in future posts. Dad’s answers will be posted later this week.

Topics covered include:

• Why am I confident Andy Burnham will win in Makerfield?

• Why are the Tories seemingly happy with losing hundreds of councillors? Have they given up on being a party of government?

• Am I surprised that Keir Starmer has struggled so much?

• Is Burnham overrated? Or has his time as mayor changed him?

• How will a Labour leadership contest work? And how might it play out?

• Could more new parties emerge before the next election? Where might the spaces for them be? Do Restore and Advance UK pose a real electoral threat?

• Will we have proportional representation for general elections in the next decade?

• Should MPs elect leaders rather than party members?

• Is Labour just a middle-class liberal party now or can they build a broader coalition?

• What will a lot of inexperienced Reform and Green councillors mean for local government?

• Does the BBC give Farage an easier ride than left-wing parties?

• Is there a crisis in the quality of politicians?

• Who’s best placed to lead the Democrats?

• Is cabinet government working?

• Why don’t big regeneration projects win votes?

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Anon: Why are you so confident Andy Burnham will win in Makerfield?

If the Labour candidate was literally anyone else, Reform would win the seat comfortably. They took the wards making up the constituency by 50% to 27% in the local elections. But there are two reasons to think Burnham is likely to win. First, he is just very popular in Greater Manchester. Nationally, he is the only politician with a consistently positive approval rating, but in his mayoral region his numbers are off the scale. His first campaign video was well judged in reinforcing the reasons for this: Manchester’s relative success but also the sense that he’s fought their corner, particularly during Covid.

If he was just relying on his personal popularity, though, Reform might still be marginal favourites, given how well suited the demographics of the seat are for them. The other big factor is the context. Places like Makerfield are full of deeply disillusioned anti-system voters who want to register a desire for more substantive change. This by-election is giving them the power to replace a deeply unpopular prime minister, and they know that. That’s a much more powerful lever to pull than voting Reform.

All that said, I’m not 100% confident he’ll win – I’d put it at more like 75%-80%. Reform have chosen a popular local candidate who got one of their highest votes in 2024, and Burnham could make missteps during the campaign. But the idea that Starmer would just stay put if Burnham does lose is fanciful. If Labour can’t win a seat like Makerfield with this candidate, in this context, then MPs will feel even more panicked and keen to force change.

Alex Potts: Why are the Tories so content with last week’s election results? Has “Britain’s natural party of government” given up on ever again becoming the government?