How to beat Reform

Including exclusive polling on the most effective attack lines

The best way for Labour to take on Reform is to run a highly successful government that leads to rising wages and improved public services. But, while they try to do that, it’s worth considering what other strategies will help to limit Nigel Farage’s chances of becoming Prime Minister.

After all, Farage and his party are hardly popular. His approval ratings has gone even more negative in recent months thanks to a series of scandals from childhood racism to taking personal donations from billionaires. While a good chunk of his voters are enthusiastic supporters, there are a lot of people considering Reform out of frustration, who aren’t big fans and are nervous about what it might mean. There are also plenty of Green and Lib Dem voters increasingly worried about a radical right government and open to tactical switching if Labour is clearly the best choice in their constituency to prevent that happening.

Figuring out how to maximise these factors isn’t just about the next general election which, though it’s weighing heavily on the minds of a lot of Labour MPs, could still be three years away.

If Andy Burnham wins in Makerfield, as seems likely, there will be an immediate by-election for the mayoralty in Greater Manchester, on the 30^th July, which Reform will target. Tactical voting will be extremely important here because it will be run under the supplementary vote system, allowing people to choose a second preference. Ensuring Green and Lib Dem voters are motivated enough to put Labour second will be critical. As will limiting enthusaism about Reform. They are also plenty of important mayoral and council elections coming up next year.

So, to understand the different ways the Reform vote can be reduced, I’ve used exclusive data from various pieces of work done by polling company Persuasion UK to look at what messages are most effective at depressing their vote share, as well as the potential for tactical voting. (Persuasion UK is doing some of the most interesting and innovative public opinion research around; their Director, Steve Akehurst, has his own substack that’s well worth following).