Going with the flow: how voters have moved since 2019

The bulk of today’s post is by Dylan looking in fascinating detail at voter flows since 2019. This is the kind of analysis I’m not sure all the campaigns even have…

But first a quick note on the Electoral Calculus MRP released last night that some of you may have seen. This shows a Labour majority of 302 and the Conservatives on just 66 seats. Though some of the constituency level results look a bit quirky, it does roughly make sense *if* you assume the Tories are going to lose by the 22 points that the current poll average is suggesting. If this really happens it would almost certainly put them below 100 seats even if the actual mix of constituencies was a little different.

But MRPs are highly dependent on methodological choices, including whether to assume the poll lead will stay quite so large. There will be at least two out next week and neither will show such an extreme result because they will make different choices.

When all the ones we’re expecting are out we’re going to do a proper comparative analysis to show you how and why they differ.

Sam