Fighting back

How do Labour get out of the hole they're in?

By-elections are often overanalysed, with freak results driven by local factors and low turnout. But the loss of Gorton and Denton really was disastrous for Labour because it accelerated a broader shift of political momentum that is existential for the party.

In January I set out why I thought the Greens could pass Labour in the polls this year. They are now nearly level, with Zach Polanski’s party ahead with some pollsters.¹ This means more impetus and more coverage for the Greens which will help them to more victories in what was already going to be a horrible set of local elections for Keir Starmer. That will lead to another poll bounce.

Understandably, senior government figures have played down the threat, arguing that the Gorton result was a one-off due to the seat’s demographics and the media circus around by-elections. In a letter to MPs Starmer wrote: “the Greens may have won here, but they simply do not have the resources, the activist base or the local knowledge to replicate this victory across the country.” I suspect his team are aware this isn’t true. One only needs to look at Reform taking control of ten councils last year to know that an established presence in an area isn’t required to win in current conditions. Neither is a coherent policy platform. As for blaming “sectarianism” or “family voting”, that isn’t going to hold as an excuse once the Greens win a bunch of council seats in places like Sussex and Cambridge.

So how do Labour escape from this cycle of decline? Something of a consensus is developing that the key is anger about “the cost of living”, so the government should focus on that above all else. One of their sharpest backbenchers, Chris Curtis, wrote a widely shared post concluding that:

“Wherever we are on social issues, whichever flank we worry about, unless we are obsessing over economic insecurity, we’re not on the pitch.”

There’s a lot of merit to this. As I pointed out in my January post, Green voters are very similar to Labour ones. They do not have extreme views and there is only limited awareness of Green policies. But they are more likely to be unhappy about their personal circumstances and to blame the government. As this analysis from the Economist shows, economic insecurity is driving people towards previously fringe parties on both right and left.

But there’s a problem with seeing action on the cost of living as the solution, even if the conflict in Iran hadn’t made it likely that bills will rise faster over the coming months. As I’ll set out in the rest of the post there now seems to be little correlation between improvements in living standards and willingness to give the government any credit, both here and in other countries. Understanding why, and what to do about it, is critical if Labour is going to find a way out of the hole they’re in.