Facing up to reality

How the Tory leadership campaign might play out, and the questions that need answering

It’s been only a week since Boris Johnson accepted the inevitable and resigned but we’re already down to four plausible candidates to replace him as Prime Minister. The most likely outcome is that two of Rishi Sunak, Penny Mordaunt and Liz Truss make it through to the membership ballot. But there is an outside chance Kemi Badenoch could still get in the mix.

I am not at all surprised at Mordaunt’s success so far. As I said in my post in early June:

“In many ways Mordaunt is the candidate Truss is desperately trying to be….She’s also diligently built a strong network in the party and is very popular amongst the membership, while at the same time avoiding the kind of culture war nastiness associated with, say, Priti Patel.”

Nor am I surprised Truss is in this mix while struggling to unite the right of the party:

“Truss is the current favourite [from the right of the party]…..Despite backing Remain at the referendum, her role in securing trade deals outside the EU has made her a Brexiteer favourite. And she is has made a lot of noise about her dislike of the Government’s tax rises. But she has not shone as foreign secretary and has the downside of a distinctly odd manner, even relative to other Tory MPs. There are plenty of concerns about her suitability.”

I am surprised that Sunak has done so well given his challenges earlier in the year. I wasn’t even sure he’d stand and thought he’d struggle if he did. But he was clearly much better prepared than I realised and had quietly built up a strong base of establishment support in the party that has blocked any chance of a Jeremy Hunt / Tom Tugendhat type candidate making the final two.

In this post I’ll look at how things might play out over the next week. I’ll then go on to explore what this campaign says so far about where the Tory party is; what that might mean for the membership vote; and the big questions with which I’d like to see the candidates engage.