Europe's Moment of Truth

As the Trump-Zelensky rift deepens

Marco Rubio and Sergei Lavrov begin negotiations in Saudi Arabia with no representatives from Ukraine or Europe

This substack has been going for just over three years. Weeks after we started posting Russia invaded Ukraine, and while I have written about many other topics since then, Ukraine has been my dominant concern.

This is both because this is one of the defining issues of our time, at least for a European, and also because after a long career studying a variety of wars I ought to be able to contribute to discussions on the state of this particular war and how it might conclude.

My approach to this task, which developed over time, is based on the following principles:

• Rely on trustworthy sources and don’t try to push the analysis beyond which they can support.

• Always pay attention to what the key actors are saying for this is the best guide to their priorities and concerns, if not necessarily to the truth.

• Conflicts develop in stages, each one shaping the one to come. This is why it is best to avoid firm predictions, especially about stages well beyond the current one, as these will depend on choices that have yet to be made and factors that cannot be anticipated in advance.

• While avoiding getting drawn into highly speculative scenarios, many stages away, do explore possibilities - developments that are conceivable given what is known about the current state of affairs - even if they are unlikely to transpire. So long as they are not confused with predictions, the analysis can still illuminate key factors influencing the course of the war.

• Whatever your sympathies (and mine are clearly with Ukraine) try to assess the situation objectively - avoiding wishful thinking and cheer-leading on the one hand, but also catastrophism on the other. If the evidence points to a stark conclusion, however, don’t hold back.

I can’t claim always to have followed my own advice, and I have certainly got things wrong, but by and large this approach has worked for me, and I intend to stick with it. But recent events make it harder than ever to follow.

We have reached a critical point in this war – not because of a sudden shift in one side’s military fortunes or even because of the peace process that Donald Trump has set in motion, which we knew was coming. It is more because of the way that Trump has turned on Zelensky. This raises questions about the sort of concessions that might get made in negotiations with Russia and whether Ukraine will be supported at all by the US should the negotiations fail.

To assess this situation this post is divided into two. The first part reprints, with their kind permission an article which appeared in the latest edition of the New Stateman. This describes the situation up to last Tuesday, and the readout for the Rubio-Lavrov talks. I think this analysis remains valid but there were developments after this went to press, especially Trump’s tirade against Zelensky, which has made an already difficult situation for Ukraine even more so. I deal with that in the second part. I suspect that over the coming days and weeks I’ll be returning regularly to these themes.