Déjà Vu All over Again

Donald Trump’s two-and-a-half-hour telephone conversation with Vladimir Putin on 16 October, followed by a claim that he is on course once again to find an end to the Russo-Ukraine War, triggered a profound sense of déjà vu.

These moments seem to come when Trump has all but given up on Putin and is talking about either extending sanctions or transferring weapons to Ukraine. In this case it was Putin who asked for the call knowing that Trump was due to meet the next day with Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The delivery of US Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine was high on the agenda.

The subsequent Trump-Zelenskyy meeting, which also lasted for some time, was described by insiders to CNN as ‘a tense, frank and, at times, “uncomfortable” discussion.’ The Financial Times went further, in describing the stormy nature of the exchanges, although its report was not sourced to anyone who was actually present at the meeting. The juiciest quotes came from a European official ‘with knowledge of the meeting.’ Neither Trump nor Zelenskyy described it afterwards in quite the same way and a Ukrainian source has now described the meeting as ‘tense,’ but without ‘shouting.’ Nonetheless a new narrative was established of Trump, having been sounding almost friendly to Zelenskyy, now turning on him viciously. The new narrative would have been more credible if these heated exchanges with Trump’s new pro-Putin demands had carried on subsequently in public, but they didn’t.

Nonetheless, and whatever the tone of the meeting, Putin did achieve two objectives. First, there was no movement on the Tomahawks. Second, using the standard techniques required to get Trump’s attention, involving lashings of praise for the Gaza deal and promises of a great economic relationship in the future, Putin gained agreement on yet another summit between the two, this time to be hosted by their mutual friend Viktor Orbán in Hungary. The venue was apparently suggested by Trump. What is less clear, however, is what another summit achieve.

Trump has been prone to wishful thinking when it comes to describing potential Russian concessions, and this case may be no exception. At least this time before the next big step, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are due to talk to prepare the ground and check that there is a possibility of real progress at a summit. Though the venue has been agreed there is as yet no date. It may not happen.

There is an easy assumption, fortified by reports of Trump’s meeting with Zelenskyy, that Putin has once again shown himself to be a wily operator, and that Ukraine is about to be abandoned. Commentators find it easy to suppose that one conversation with Putin has led Trump to complete change his position. Before the pessimism goes too far we can recall the negative view taken both when the Anchorage summit was announced last August and then in its immediate aftermath, when similar claims were made.

In the event, for all its symbolism, this summit achieved very little for Putin. If anything it was counterproductive. Trump was not impressed by Putin at their meeting, while the follow up meeting with Zelenskyy and other European leaders a few days after ended with strengthening Ukraine’s position. Unsurprisingly, after the latest phone call, Russian state media claimed that peace was at hand this time round so long as the Ukrainians and Europeans don’t get a chance to spoil it as they have done before.

My view is that there is far more consistency in both Trump’s and Putin’s views of the conflict which is why I doubt that this summit, if it happens, will amount to much. I’ll explain why in this post, after looking at the background to the latest flurry of activity. A key difference between the two is whether there can be a ceasefire before a political settlement or whether a political settlement must come first. Changes in the way the war is being fought has made this much more complicated, even before we take into account the incompatibility of the two sides’ positions.