Isn't it about time that our political parties shed the Bennite policy of giving power to activists, and revert to MPs alone choosing the leader (certainly when in government)?
It is self indulgent and dangerously distracting from a dangerous world. The public will not take kindly to a party that takes all summer to pick a new leader. After Johnson fell, we were in limbo until Truss (in retrospect, the limbo period was better), but surely we should return to parliamentary parties choosing the prime minister?
Not to be a pedant, but neither party has the Bennite policy of giving power to *activists* they give it to members. The Bennite Electoral College allowed activists to cast block votes on behalf of their CLP. That's why the proto-SDP demanded One Member, One Vote because they thought that the membership was more reasonable than the most committed activists. Labour moved away from this with One Member, One Vote in 1993
Hi both, I'd particularly like to know the likelihood of the government actually doing anything regarding a system of proportional representation for both local and national elections in time for the next major round of both, or more importantly before the end of this parliament. It cannot be wise that seats are won on 22% of the vote with another four parties getting 17% or so. Where is the legitimacy? I fear Labour will do nothing however, centre left parties have a fear of doing anything contentious whereas right wing parties will push things as much as they can.
And if not, might we in Scotland vote for a change to First Past The Post and thumping SNP majorities? After all, the Tories were very keen on FPTP for mayoral elections…
Thank you both for your essays, which I find uniformly excellent. I was wondering if Lawrence had any thoughts on the likelihood, or otherwise, of the China - Taiwan issue becoming a live conflict in the near future.
You have cogently analysed the problems with the way Labour governs, from even before they got into power. But all that still doesn't take away from the extraordinary weirdness of the speed of collapse of support for the government in 2024. Literally within weeks, certainly an absurdly small number of months, people who had presumably voted for the government were saying that they didn't like it, before they could possibly have done anything, good or bad. What on earth was going on there? It's not plausible that it was genuinely caused by a non-scandal about donated clothes; or even taxing winter fuel - those feel like excuses for something that was there already. Can it really be simply explained as "anti-politics sentiment"?
Given that (a) Brexit has caused huge economic damage; (b) most people realise this; (c) a majority - especially younger people - favour rejoining; (d) Nigel Farage was the main proponent of Brexit ... (e) why doesn't Labour have the courage to take Farage head-on: saying that the UK should rejoin the single market and forcing Farage to become Mr Brexit again - defending the disaster that he created. The most depressing aspect of Labour in the past two years is the lack of courage: best shown in tacking towards harsh immigration policies to follow the Tories down the Reform plughole. New leader with cojones please! (that doesn't rule out Angela Rayner)
For Lawrence: is the Strategic Defence Review already out of date, given the rate of change of both the technology and the strategic context?
For Sam: what's going on with the civil service? There appears to be a level of incompetence I find depressing. Is this caused by demoralisation, political interference, poor appointments?
Lots asking about the possibility PR in the next election especially since the Senedd have used it successfully. Will it be introduced & what are the potential hurdles it may face. I'm also wondering if they'll try to do a Rejoin vote or will that divide further & give the right more fuel.
One of my big concerns is, how do we attract quality future MPs.
I would be hugely interested in Sam’s views on this second part in particular (the “quality MPs”). It seems to me at least part of the problem with the ability of governments to connect at the moment is the rise of the “professional politician” who has spent their whole time since University in or around a political party. Is it time for “job interviews” for prospective MPs, requiring a certain amount of experience in a field other than politics?
(Also we should DEFINITELY pay MPs more to disincentivise second jobs, but that’s a whole other story…)
As long as job interviews aren't what many graduates face these days which is a mixture of business gobbledygook & AI. Look at Zelensky, his CV would baffle Hal 9000. As for pay, I do think that is part of the problem & not another story. Certainly in my lifetime political people were either supported by the unions, from well off families or both.
Iran seems to be playing tit for tat and using a lot of game theory. It would be intesresting to have some thoughts on that plus Kahn and Schelling on escalation ladders and ratchets.
Prospect the new conservative group. Is it getting any traction?
Why doesn’t badenoch abandon the culture wars and tack centre wards to an economic prosperity approach. A more traditional Thatcherite approach that would recapture the professional classes and create a real point of difference with Reform.
Why don’t the liberals do the same?
Why doesn’t labour just go for a big vision and then implement it. Do the big reforms as you set out in your book. So frustrating that Starmer prefers to play his violin…..
Back to Lawrence it would be good to consider whether we really need the US. Most of the capacities that NATO would loose with the US seem to be required for global and expeditionary warfare. Not for neighbour adjacent battles. Ie. Most capacities are what the US thinks are important for it, not wha Europe actually needs vs Russia.
It would also be good to consider the us vs china as a strategic game and how each is playing it and what their goals are. How much of a chance does the US have in containment. How and when is the US web of allies likely to fall apart.
Similarly in the Middle East. It’s less the actual politics of it than how the pressures of changing great power status influence their networks of client states.
I've been starting to think that 3 years is a very long time in AI terms. How plausible is it that the next election could be much more about responses to the impact of AI (on productivity, energy, jobs, you name it) than on the usual suspects such as immigration? If so, do you think any of the parties has an advantage over the others, either in terms of having people who understand it well, or existing policies/stances that could be adapted for an AI world?
If you go round the industrial towns of the north and midlands you can see the decline which has been occurring over the last decade, boarded up town centres, poor quality housing, factories shut down and the blight of pot holes in the roads. Couple that with the Home Office policy of housing asylum seekers in the cheapest possible areas which are invariably these same industrial towns which see the proliferation of multiple occupancy houses. Finally throw into the mix low level crime and drug dealing .
What is this labour government doing to tackle these problems and how should they go about it? If I sound angry I am, this Westminster circus is just a distraction from what our elected politicians should be doing.
What is a realistic path and timeline to rejoin the EU given the unappealing trade-offs of a customs union or Norway relationship, and the likely response of the right to push free movement/immigration back up the agenda, plus lengthy, tortuous, compromising negotiations with the EU? Is there a politically deliverable path through (probably over a much longer timeline than many would like)?
It is fantasy politics. There is no path to rejoin the EU at the moment or for the foreseeable future. The EU is perfectly capable of reading UK polling and political media
Why are the Tories so "this is fine" about last week's elections? Has "the world's oldest political party" and "Britain's natural party of government" given up on ever again becoming the government?
For Lawrence: A recurring theme in ‘Command’ is the advantage that democracies typically have over autocracies when it comes to leaders basing their decisions on factually accurate information.
What is your assessment of the extent to which Putin has an accurate understanding of what is happening on the battlefield in Ukraine? Do you think he’d be more likely to compromise on his maximalist objectives if he had a better understanding of what’s going on?
Isn't it about time that our political parties shed the Bennite policy of giving power to activists, and revert to MPs alone choosing the leader (certainly when in government)?
It is self indulgent and dangerously distracting from a dangerous world. The public will not take kindly to a party that takes all summer to pick a new leader. After Johnson fell, we were in limbo until Truss (in retrospect, the limbo period was better), but surely we should return to parliamentary parties choosing the prime minister?
Not to be a pedant, but neither party has the Bennite policy of giving power to *activists* they give it to members. The Bennite Electoral College allowed activists to cast block votes on behalf of their CLP. That's why the proto-SDP demanded One Member, One Vote because they thought that the membership was more reasonable than the most committed activists. Labour moved away from this with One Member, One Vote in 1993
Yes, but Labour still has three voting blocs doesn’t it?
And for both major parties (can we say that now?), the vote goes out to party members, and takes weeks. We need something quicker than that. MPs only.
Sure. But its still not the Bennite policy of giving power to activists.
Hi both, I'd particularly like to know the likelihood of the government actually doing anything regarding a system of proportional representation for both local and national elections in time for the next major round of both, or more importantly before the end of this parliament. It cannot be wise that seats are won on 22% of the vote with another four parties getting 17% or so. Where is the legitimacy? I fear Labour will do nothing however, centre left parties have a fear of doing anything contentious whereas right wing parties will push things as much as they can.
And if not, might we in Scotland vote for a change to First Past The Post and thumping SNP majorities? After all, the Tories were very keen on FPTP for mayoral elections…
Do you think proportional representation for general elections is likely in the UK within the next ten years?
Thank you both for your essays, which I find uniformly excellent. I was wondering if Lawrence had any thoughts on the likelihood, or otherwise, of the China - Taiwan issue becoming a live conflict in the near future.
Thanks Nick
You have cogently analysed the problems with the way Labour governs, from even before they got into power. But all that still doesn't take away from the extraordinary weirdness of the speed of collapse of support for the government in 2024. Literally within weeks, certainly an absurdly small number of months, people who had presumably voted for the government were saying that they didn't like it, before they could possibly have done anything, good or bad. What on earth was going on there? It's not plausible that it was genuinely caused by a non-scandal about donated clothes; or even taxing winter fuel - those feel like excuses for something that was there already. Can it really be simply explained as "anti-politics sentiment"?
Given that (a) Brexit has caused huge economic damage; (b) most people realise this; (c) a majority - especially younger people - favour rejoining; (d) Nigel Farage was the main proponent of Brexit ... (e) why doesn't Labour have the courage to take Farage head-on: saying that the UK should rejoin the single market and forcing Farage to become Mr Brexit again - defending the disaster that he created. The most depressing aspect of Labour in the past two years is the lack of courage: best shown in tacking towards harsh immigration policies to follow the Tories down the Reform plughole. New leader with cojones please! (that doesn't rule out Angela Rayner)
For Lawrence: is the Strategic Defence Review already out of date, given the rate of change of both the technology and the strategic context?
For Sam: what's going on with the civil service? There appears to be a level of incompetence I find depressing. Is this caused by demoralisation, political interference, poor appointments?
As an ex-civil servant I have Thoughts on the civil service question…but I suspect that Sam’s views will be far more erudite than mine…
Ditto!
Lots asking about the possibility PR in the next election especially since the Senedd have used it successfully. Will it be introduced & what are the potential hurdles it may face. I'm also wondering if they'll try to do a Rejoin vote or will that divide further & give the right more fuel.
One of my big concerns is, how do we attract quality future MPs.
(Sorry about the football adjective)
I would be hugely interested in Sam’s views on this second part in particular (the “quality MPs”). It seems to me at least part of the problem with the ability of governments to connect at the moment is the rise of the “professional politician” who has spent their whole time since University in or around a political party. Is it time for “job interviews” for prospective MPs, requiring a certain amount of experience in a field other than politics?
(Also we should DEFINITELY pay MPs more to disincentivise second jobs, but that’s a whole other story…)
As long as job interviews aren't what many graduates face these days which is a mixture of business gobbledygook & AI. Look at Zelensky, his CV would baffle Hal 9000. As for pay, I do think that is part of the problem & not another story. Certainly in my lifetime political people were either supported by the unions, from well off families or both.
Iran seems to be playing tit for tat and using a lot of game theory. It would be intesresting to have some thoughts on that plus Kahn and Schelling on escalation ladders and ratchets.
Prospect the new conservative group. Is it getting any traction?
Why doesn’t badenoch abandon the culture wars and tack centre wards to an economic prosperity approach. A more traditional Thatcherite approach that would recapture the professional classes and create a real point of difference with Reform.
Why don’t the liberals do the same?
Why doesn’t labour just go for a big vision and then implement it. Do the big reforms as you set out in your book. So frustrating that Starmer prefers to play his violin…..
Back to Lawrence it would be good to consider whether we really need the US. Most of the capacities that NATO would loose with the US seem to be required for global and expeditionary warfare. Not for neighbour adjacent battles. Ie. Most capacities are what the US thinks are important for it, not wha Europe actually needs vs Russia.
It would also be good to consider the us vs china as a strategic game and how each is playing it and what their goals are. How much of a chance does the US have in containment. How and when is the US web of allies likely to fall apart.
Similarly in the Middle East. It’s less the actual politics of it than how the pressures of changing great power status influence their networks of client states.
That’s a lot 🤣
I've been starting to think that 3 years is a very long time in AI terms. How plausible is it that the next election could be much more about responses to the impact of AI (on productivity, energy, jobs, you name it) than on the usual suspects such as immigration? If so, do you think any of the parties has an advantage over the others, either in terms of having people who understand it well, or existing policies/stances that could be adapted for an AI world?
Hi Sam
If you go round the industrial towns of the north and midlands you can see the decline which has been occurring over the last decade, boarded up town centres, poor quality housing, factories shut down and the blight of pot holes in the roads. Couple that with the Home Office policy of housing asylum seekers in the cheapest possible areas which are invariably these same industrial towns which see the proliferation of multiple occupancy houses. Finally throw into the mix low level crime and drug dealing .
What is this labour government doing to tackle these problems and how should they go about it? If I sound angry I am, this Westminster circus is just a distraction from what our elected politicians should be doing.
What is a realistic path and timeline to rejoin the EU given the unappealing trade-offs of a customs union or Norway relationship, and the likely response of the right to push free movement/immigration back up the agenda, plus lengthy, tortuous, compromising negotiations with the EU? Is there a politically deliverable path through (probably over a much longer timeline than many would like)?
It is fantasy politics. There is no path to rejoin the EU at the moment or for the foreseeable future. The EU is perfectly capable of reading UK polling and political media
Why are the Tories so "this is fine" about last week's elections? Has "the world's oldest political party" and "Britain's natural party of government" given up on ever again becoming the government?
Will China invade Taiwan while Trump is in China?
Why am I never reading about Ed Milliband as a potential Labour leader candidate? He’s the one Id pick
For Lawrence: A recurring theme in ‘Command’ is the advantage that democracies typically have over autocracies when it comes to leaders basing their decisions on factually accurate information.
What is your assessment of the extent to which Putin has an accurate understanding of what is happening on the battlefield in Ukraine? Do you think he’d be more likely to compromise on his maximalist objectives if he had a better understanding of what’s going on?