Answering your questions

On Trump, global consequences, and UK politics

Thanks, as always, for a great haul of questions from subscribers. We’ve split this one into three blocks - the first (by Sam) on US domestic politics following the election last week; the second on the consequences for international relations (by Lawrence); and then a final block on UK politics (also by Sam).

On US politics Sam answers on:

• Whether MAGA has permanently taken over the Republicans

• Who might the Democrats nominate next time and how do they win?

• Does this result pressage long term Republican rule?

• Will Trump get his agenda through Congress?

• How big a threat is he to US democracy?

• Will the real rulers be the billionaires behind Trump?

On international relations Lawrence answers on:

• How bad will Trump be for Ukraine?

• What happens if Putin “wins”?

• What can Europe do to counter the risk from Trump?

• Will the UK be pushed into a closer relationship with the EU?

• What does it mean for UK/US cooperation?

• What are the implications for climate change?

On UK politics Sam answers on:

• Why is the reaction to Trump’s win so different to Labour’s?

• Will Labour get their act together?

• Why did Rachel Reeves make the choices she did?

• Will Reform blow up at some point?

• Will Kemi Badenoch just chase Reform voters?

• Is there a threat to women’s rights here too?

• How to have an impact working in a large bureaucracy

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US Politics (Sam)

Tom Hill: Can you see a way for the establishment Republicans to recapture the party or is MAGA here to stay?

There’s two different questions here. I don’t think “establishment Republicans” in the sense of George Bush, Dick Cheney, and Mitt Romney type figures have any significant sway in the party any more. Indeed Cheney voted for Harris and I wouldn’t be surprised to find the other two did as well in private. This is closely related to Democrats becoming the lead party with voters earning over $100k, exactly the demographic that used to sustain the Republicans.

But that’s not quite the same as MAGA being here to stay. Trump is a sui generis figure in politics, none of the more aggressive/crude Republicans of the new generation have managed to gain his kind of popularity with the GOP base. Vance’s ratings are a lot worse. Ron DeSantis failed to challenge Trump in the primaries. Kari Lake ran well behind Trump in Arizona and failed to win her senate race. Trump endorsed celebrity candidates like Mehmet Oz have failed to win races.

You’d expect Vance to run in 2028, depending on how the next four years go, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the candidate ends up being one of their current state Governors like Glenn Youngkin (Virginia) or Greg Abbot (Texas). They’ve run way more conservative agendas that Republicans of previous eras and have studiously avoided criticising Trump but are also much more conventional politicians. So the party will stay way to the right of where it used to be but Trump himself may turn out to be a one off in his approach.   

Alexander Williams: I know it’s perilous to speculate at this point but do you have any predictions as to who the Democrats might nominate in 2028? And more generally what do the Democrats need to do to win back the voters who rejected them this time?

It’s too early to have much of a sense of who will be nominated next time, there are lots of potential candidates. The most high profile are probably three of their current Governors: Gavin Newsom (California), Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan) and Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania). There’s an obvious attraction to the last two given the importance of the “blue wall” states that Trump narrowly won but would have handed the election to Harris had she managed to hold them.

One name I expect to hear touted a lot more over the next few years is Ruben Gallego, who won his senate seat in Arizona, a state Trump took by six points. One of the more obviously problematic demographic trends for the Democrats is around Latino men. This group were already moving towards Trump in 2020 but that accelerated a lot this time. There will be a temptation to resist this by having a Latino candidate, with a great backstory (he was a marine). This is only going to become more important to the Democrats in the next decade as the 2030 census will likely see the rust belt, New York and California all lose electoral college votes, with the big gainers being Texas and Florida.

In terms of what they need to do to win next time,