Answering your questions

Thanks to subscribers for sending us another batch of great questions. As ever we haven’t been able to answer everything but hopefully have picked a good mix.

Lawrence answers on topics including:

• What a Trump win might mean for Ukraine

• Drones vs tanks

• Are Ukraine’s war aims achievable?

• Putin and North Korea

• Realists

• Chances of a Russian collapse

• What makes a good leader

Sam answers on topics including:

• Priority setting for a new government

• Policies for growth

• Will the Tories leave the ECHR

• What taxes will go up

• Standout Labour candidates

• Starmer and the EU

• PR and why Labour aren’t interested

Questions to Lawrence

DG: Does a Trump victory necessarily hasten a Ukraine loss? Or what other realistic dynamics/scenarios could play out in the event of a withdrawal of US support that do not necessarily lead to Ukraine being left stranded?

Putin is hoping for a Trump victory. If this happens this will have enormous consequences well beyond Ukraine, with consternation among US allies and potential chaos in the US. Trump is very unpredictable and will act according to how he thinks it makes him look. Much will depend on the state of the war. Also Trump’s priorities. Will he concentrate on unravelling his legal problems and pardoning his friends? What will happen to Congress in elections? Whatever happens the Senate will remain hostile to Russia. Who does he get into key jobs in State, Pentagon, and NSC?

As far Russia/Ukraine is concerned Trump has claimed that he will end the conflict ‘in a day’, which he can’t. He will wish to talk with Putin (hard to see where given that he is under ICC indictment). Putin may expect Trump to dump Zelensky completely and push his luck. Ukraine will lobby hard. I could imagine scenarios in which Trump tries to see if there is a deal and then blames whoever he feels is being most difficult. So while it is hard to see how a Trump victory will be good for Ukraine we can’t assume any consequences.

As interesting a question is what happens if Biden wins again because that may force Putin to reappraise his strategy.

Ben Reynolds: Tanks, aircraft carriers, and military planes have become assets too valuable to risk in actual combat (e.g., F-35 at $80 million each). Drones are astonishingly cheaper and harder to find/track/kill. How do you think the role of the expensive assets will change in the next two decades?

This is not a new issue. Fifty years ago after October 73 Arab-Israel War the vulnerability of tanks to accurate anti-tank weapons and aircraft to anti-aircraft missiles was noted. The problem is that if you are moving vehicles in battlefield capable of attacking enemy positions then they are best armoured and they look like tanks. The issue is a very transparent battlefield that makes it harder to hide which means that movement is unwise unless defences have been suppressed, which the Ukrainians have found difficult because of limited air power. I think there is a case for relying on more smaller systems than a few big ones. The main shifts will be tactical I suspect, plus more emphasis on electronic warfare techniques to neutralise drones.