Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Michael's avatar

Russia, like the UK and France, is clearly in a period of post-imperial decline.

Putin has had some success in slowing, and even reversing, parts of that decline. Hydrocarbon wealth, and increasingly brutal totalitarian tactics, drove some military successes. But social, political and diplomatic successes haven't followed.

Putin's economic successes are fragile. As in other major hydrocarbon exporters, export revenues flow to a relatively small rentier elite. Other sections of the economy haven't kept up and political repression has restricted the growth of innovative sectors.

The full scale military invasion of Ukraine was a gamble, an unnecessary over-reach, and it is his regime that is under threat.

American 'realists' should be able to recognize that reality.

Whatever happens in Ukraine, Russia's imperial decline is highly likely to continue. There will be more neo-colonial struggles, more fracturing of Russia's borders.

A declining Russia will be a source of many difficulties, for Europe, for China, and potentially for India.

Not so much for the US.

Expand full comment
Carol Gamm's avatar

Thank you for your analysis. Ukraine is NOT Viet Nam. It is a nation being threatened by a foreign power. And we Americans should not be surprised that some military analysts still don’t understand the Viet Nam War. Listen to the Eastern Europeans if you want to hear about what life is like under the Russians. The people of Ukraine deserve the support of the US and more support from the Europeans. If the Russians take Ukraine, which country would be next? China has its own problems to deal with. It is a danger, but one that benefits from a aThe US should continue its work with its Asian allies. The Biden administration deserves more support for its policies and hard work.

Expand full comment
61 more comments...

No posts