After Makerfield

What happens next and is the result replicable?

If Andy Burnham could have chosen a constituency to run in it wouldn’t have been Makerfield. Plenty of other MPs in safer seats were sounded out first. Josh Simons was the only one prepared to quit. But now it looks like a tactical masterstroke. By winning so comprehensively in a seat so demographically friendly to Reform, he has made it even more likely that he will be Prime Minister at some point over the summer. And it was an extraordinary win. This is the first time a Labour government has defended a seat in a by-election with this small a majority in 48 years and it wasn’t even close.

We have a bumper post this morning to reflect on what it all means. First I look at some of the big questions that follow. How quickly will there be a leadership challenge and how could it play out? Exactly how bad a result is this for Reform? What should we make of a strange night for the Tories, losing their deposit in Makerfield but winning impressively in Aberdeen South against the SNP? Has the Greens’ momentum been snuffed out completely?

Then we have a guest article from Professor Jane Green, Co-Director of the British Election Study, Director of the Nuffield Politics Research Centre, and President of the British Polling Council with Marta Miori, a research fellow at Nuffield College. Jane and Marta look at what we can learn from the result and whether it’s replicable nationwide.

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How quickly will there be a leadership challenge and what are the scenarios for how things could play out?

Burnham’s team have made it clear that there won’t be an immediate challenge over the weekend. They are hoping Starmer quits without a fight, so there can be a quick and painless transition.

But the PM has said he wants to force a contest, which would mean Burnham would have to formally challenge in the next week or two. By all accounts Starmer is serious about wanting to stay, believing that Burnham isn’t up to the job and that views of his premiership will turn around once people notice improvements in waiting lists and migration numbers. He is a deeply proud and competitive person, and nobody who has the job wants to give it up without a fight. Apparently he’s raised £100k for a campaign. There will be people around him advising him that he should leave with dignity. But as Stephen Bush astutely noted, Starmer phoning up Morgan McSweeney for advice suggests someone shopping around for someone who will tell him what he wants to hear.

Either way, it’s not entirely in his control. Should he try and fight, ministers will not be able to back Burnham’s challenge without resigning. If a cabinet delegation were to let Starmer know that they would have no choice but to quit in these circumstances, he may accept he has to go. The same would be true if he does force the issue and waves of ministers resign. The scale of Burnham’s win makes it more likely that they’ll be a concerted effort to get the PM to accept the inevitable.

If he refuses to go it would put a lot of ministers in a tricky position.