One significant difference between Australia than the UK is that Australia has long had much stronger economic growth - notably it was one of very few western countries that didn't tip into recession in 2008. The fact that the LNC has lost control anyway should be terrifying for a British Conservative government having to contend with the current economic chaos on top of all the underlying frailties in their voting coalition.
The major Anglo-Saxon countries (100% Anglo-Saxon, so not Canada where almost a quarter of Parliament is Quebecois) seem to move in tandem. In 2016, ancestral Labour/Dem working-class voters turning to the conservative and populist platform powered Brexit and Trump to victory. In the US in 2020, Oz in 2022, and likely the UK in the next election, highly-educated ancestral Tory/GOP suburbanites turning away from the conservative party gains a boring safe LOC leader victory.
The Crosby Textor playbook even ran to having their man crash tackle a child on a sporting field at almost exactly the same point in the campaign. The ultimate dead cat to sweep a significant opposition leader speech from the front pages in the last week before voting.
The Tories appear to be actively conspiring in their own electoral demise. When the election comes into view in a years time there is likely to be a large switch to “dull but safe” Starmer over both ‘time for change’ and integrity issues with the Tories.
The Tories only chance of stopping this is switching leader. Doesn’t look like it’s happening. Boris plays for time and it will all too soon be too late.
One significant difference between Australia than the UK is that Australia has long had much stronger economic growth - notably it was one of very few western countries that didn't tip into recession in 2008. The fact that the LNC has lost control anyway should be terrifying for a British Conservative government having to contend with the current economic chaos on top of all the underlying frailties in their voting coalition.
The major Anglo-Saxon countries (100% Anglo-Saxon, so not Canada where almost a quarter of Parliament is Quebecois) seem to move in tandem. In 2016, ancestral Labour/Dem working-class voters turning to the conservative and populist platform powered Brexit and Trump to victory. In the US in 2020, Oz in 2022, and likely the UK in the next election, highly-educated ancestral Tory/GOP suburbanites turning away from the conservative party gains a boring safe LOC leader victory.
The Crosby Textor playbook even ran to having their man crash tackle a child on a sporting field at almost exactly the same point in the campaign. The ultimate dead cat to sweep a significant opposition leader speech from the front pages in the last week before voting.
The Tories appear to be actively conspiring in their own electoral demise. When the election comes into view in a years time there is likely to be a large switch to “dull but safe” Starmer over both ‘time for change’ and integrity issues with the Tories.
The Tories only chance of stopping this is switching leader. Doesn’t look like it’s happening. Boris plays for time and it will all too soon be too late.