2026: The Preview

Anyone trying to make grand predictions about the future of the world risks looking extremely daft. Famously, few analysts foresaw the collapse of the Soviet Empire until it happened. It was also widely assumed, at the time, that Japan would be the coming power in the 1990s, before its economy went into a nosedive. More recently many thought Russia would quickly overpower Ukraine (though not on this substack). Almost four years on Russia hold less land than they did a few weeks into the conflict.

We start 2026 in a state of geopolitical febrility that’s unusual even for the past few years. Six days in and the capricious narcissist in the White House has already kidnapped Nicolás Maduro and claimed to be running Venezuela, as well as threatening Mexico, Cuba, Colombia, Greenland and Iran.

Meanwhile, negotiations over Ukraine are ongoing and while it seems unlikely a real peace deal can be found, we don’t know how much pressure Vladimir Putin is under, or quite how much trouble the Russian economy is in. China launched a major live-fire military exercise last week, encircling Taiwan. There are widespread protests in Iran, where the economy is also in real trouble, though it’s hard to tell how much of a threat they represent to the regime. In recent months a series of “Gen Z” revolutions have shaken autocracies and fragile democracies from Nepal to Madagascar. There is profound uncertainly over the impact of AI on the global economy and labour markets. And extreme weather events are becoming more common.

Given all that it’s impossible to predict what will happen later this week let alone this year. But there are some things that we do know will happen or seem very likely – like elections, leadership contests and critical court judgments. So in this post I’m going to focus on the events already pencilled into the calendar – in the UK, US and around the world – to give readers a sense of what coming in the year ahead, as well as highlighting a few trends to watch out for.

UK

May elections:

These will be the most important set of contests before the next general election.