All 650 seat previews in one place

With final predictions

When I said I was going to write a preview for every seat I didn’t quite realise the scale of the task. 650 is a lot and it’s taken 77,000 words, written over four weeks, to do them all.

But it is now complete and all the previews are here in one place in this post. The 18 Northern Ireland ones, that I haven’t posted before are at the end.

If you want it in spreadsheet form then subscriber Jon Skeet has built this neat site where you can see all my predictions against the seat, alongside other predictions and the time the seat will be announed. It will be updated live as results come in.

I’ve also gone back through some of the predictions I made early on when things looked marginally better for the Tories. And adjusted a few:

I’ve shifted three seats from Lean Conservative to Lean Labour: Faversham and Mid Kent, South West Devon, and Bridgwater.

And I’ve shifted five from Lean Conservative to Lean LD: Bicester and Woodstock, Witney, Surrey Heath, Mid Sussex, and Frome and East Somerset.

Needless to say these are all very tight races, by definition.

This leaves me with the following final prediction:

Labour: 445 (+247)

Conservative: 98 (-276)

Liberal Democrat: 62 (+54)

SNP 16 (-32)

Sinn Fein 7 (=)

DUP 6 (-2)

Green 3 (+2)

Reform 3 (+3)

Plaid Cymru 3 (+1)

Alliance 2 (+1)

SDLP 2 (=)

UUP 1 (+1)

Independent 1 (+1)

Speaker 1 (=)

I didn’t set out with a particular end number in mind. I’ve tried to go seat by seat. But it has ended up close to the average of the MRPs, albeit not with the same predictions as any of them.

There are, of course, big caveats. While every poll, and every other indicator we have, tells us there will be a big Labour majority, the scale of it, and what that means for the seat totals, is up in the air. I would not be shocked at any number of Tory seats between 30 and 200. There are so many close seats that we just won’t know till the exit poll.

Hopefully this has been a useful exercise (I’ve certainly found it useful to do).

Later on I’ll be sending out a “what to watch” post for tomorrow night.