Seat Previews: The North East

Plus who decides who the opposition is?

The bulk of today’s post is previews for the 27 seats in the North East.

But before we get to that I wanted to address a question I’m getting asked more than any other at the moment. What happens if the Tories and Lib Dems get very similar numbers of seats? Who decides who the opposition is?

Well there is legislation - the Ministerial and Salaries Act 1975 - that states the Leader of the Opposition (LOTO) is that of the party that has “the greatest numerical strength”. But it adds that:

“If any doubt arises as to which is or was at any material time the party in opposition to Her Majesty’s Government having the greatest numerical strength in the House of Commons, or as to who is or was at any material time the leader in that House of such a party, the question shall be decided for the purposes of this Act by the Speaker of the House of Commons, and his decision, certified in writing under his hand, shall be final and conclusive.”

So if one party is clearly ahead then their leader is LOTO. But if it’s more complex - say, the Tories won 75 seats and the Lib Dems 73, and then two Alliance MPs from Northern Ireland said they’d sit with the Lib Dems - well the Speaker will have to get involved and make a call.

Moreover, this legislation only refers to the pay that goes with the titles. Other perks of being LOTO, like getting to decide what Parliament debates on 17 of the 20 days a session alloted to opposition parties, are just convention under the Standings Orders of the House. These can be changed by a vote. Or, like getting to ask six questions at PMQs, are purely at the discretion of the Speaker. He could propose that if two parties have very similar numbers of MPs that the perks should be split differently. In practice this would need to be agreed in a negotiation with the relevant parties before and changes or any vote in the Commons to amend standing orders.

Some of the more extreme potential scenarios indicated by the polls would require a more thorough re-think of how aspects of the Commons work.