Is the two party system in permanent decline?

Plus polling updates and seat previews for Humber and North Yorkshire

We have a packed post today.

1. An update on polling averages by demographics.

2. A fascinating post by Dylan on the decline of the two party system.

3. The final 18 seat previews for Yorkshire.

Over the past few days on the election briefing we’ve had a map of all the MRPs combined to show where they disagree; an anlsysis of how different methodologies used by polling companies are creating divergence in their topline findings; and seat previews for Suffolk, Norfolk, Leicestershire and Northamptonshire; Lincolnshire, Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire; the rural West Midlands and the Black Country; and Birmingham, Coventry, South and West Yorkshire.

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Polling Update

Dylan’s breakdown of the polls by demographics (below) highlights some interesting shifts.

1. There are now five parties polling in double digits for the 18-34 age group, and the Tories are in fourth place, just behind the Lib Dems and Reform. This should be of serious concern to those thinking about how to rebuild the Tory party.

2. The Labour vote seems to be holding up better in the Midlands and South, where there are lots of marginals, rather than the North and London, where there are not. Which suggests a mix of tactical voting and people getting less bothered about voting in safe seats.

3. Labour’s bump in Scotland last week has dropped back so these crossbreaks from national polls are now more in line with Scotland-only polls.

4. The number of 2019 Conservatives willing to vote for the party again is still dropping as we enter the final week of the campaign.

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