Mapping the MRPs

Plus seat previews for Norfolk, Suffolk, Northamptonshire and Leicestershire

The bulk of today’s post is 35 seat previews (I’m going to need to speed up to get through them all in time so they’ll be lots this week).

This batch covers the rest of the East of England, including a lot of very tight races and some high profile ones too e.g. Liz Truss and Nick Timothy. And then we get started on the East Midlands - including some seats where Reform will hope to do well and the extremely chaotic world of Leicester East.

But before that, Dylan has done a great map putting together all the MRPs from the past week to show where they differ and where they agree.

I’ve heard a lot of frustration from people that they have such a wide range - from More in Common predicting a Labour majority of 162 and 155 Tory seats, to Savanta predicting a 382 majority and 53 Tory seats.

The five mid-campaign ones, though, (More in Common, Ipsos, YouGov, Survation and Savanta) do, agree on 66% of all British seats - 420 of them. There are another 121 where four of the five agree. It’s just that the seats they agree on are mostly ones that will go to Labour. There are 368 Labour seats where there is complete agreement, but just 21 Tory ones. That’s less than the 23 they all agree will go Lib Dem.