Crossover

Our weekly dive into polling sub-samples plus seat previews for the Bristol area and north London

It finally happened - a YouGov poll has put the Tories behind Reform, albeit by just a point. It’s unprecedented for them to be third in a poll during a general election campaign. But before we get carried away we have to remember that the most interesting polls are not necessarily the most accurate.

In the polling average Reform are still 8 points behind the Conservatives. Moreover, YouGov had Labour on 37% when their average is 43%. Clearly, as we’ve been saying throughout the campaign, the Tories are in really serious danger, but we’re not quite at Canada 93 yet.

We are seeing meaningful shifts in the averages, though, as we can see in Dylan’s break down of polling sub-samples from the past week.

Some notable points: the Tories are dropping across most demographics, but particularly amongst younger voters. The Lib Dem bump seems most concerted in the south, which fits with it being related to tactical voting, as that is where most of their targets are. We can also see 2019 Lib Dem voters revert back to the party from Labour. Again consistent with tactical voting. Reform are taking Leave voters off the Tories, and have gone past Labour into second place with that group.

None of this is good news for the Conservatives, and if these trends continue I’ll need to shift some of the seats I’ve predicted they’ll narrowly hold to other parties in my final predictions.

Today’s previews cover the Bristol area which contains the seats belonging to Jacob Rees-Mogg and Liam Fox, as well as Bristol Central - one of the big Labour vs Green battles. I also start on the London seats, on my home turf, with Enfield, Barnet and Haringey.