Understanding the Reform surge

Plus seat previews for Cornwall and Devon

A double helping of election nerdiness this morning. First up is Josh on the Reform poll “surge” of the last week. Looking at where the votes are coming from and whether they are “soft” ones that might end up elsewhere on election day.

Then we start our seat previews for the south west, beginning with Cornwall and Devon. A subscriber (@gj4man on twitter) has made this lovely sankey diagram of all my predictions for the south east. It’s really striking how many effective marginals there are. It’s going to be a fascinating election night

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